Category : Insights
Assistant Professor at the Rabdan Academy, the Homeland Security Department
(July 23, 2024)
The evolution of aerial warfare from the early days of the First World War until today has witnessed a rapid development in technology and tactical employment of the airplane. The early uses of airplane in war saw fragile craft used for reconnaissance and artillery fire correction, rapidly taking on new tasks like dropping bombs and shooting down enemy aircraft. The evolution of aerial ‘drone’ warfare has followed a similar path with early remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) used exclusively for reconnaissance, surveillance and artillery fire correction. However, during the two-decade-long US-led “global war on terror” drones were used for precision strikes and targeted assassinations in largely non-contested environments. Today, as armed and unarmed RPAs of all shapes and sizes fill the skies in diverse battlefields and from non- to lightly-contested airspaces to heavily contested ones, arming them with air-to-air missiles to oppose adversary drones has already begun. It is only a matter of time before RPAs start shooting at each other in an attempt to prevent enemy drones from gathering intelligence or harassing friendly forces. Unlike the science-fiction-like depictions of future “drone wars”, the first drone-vs-drone air combat will likely look nothing like anything from science fiction but resemble the aerial duels of the First World War—however, remotely controlled and equipped with advanced and highly-capable air-to-air missiles.
First Incidents of Drone ‘Air Combat’
The first known use of a drone to take down another drone in war occurred in mid-October 2022 in Ukraine as Ukrainian drone operator’s Chinese-made Mavic quadcopter was used to intentionally collide and take down a Russian drone somewhere over Donbas to probably prevent it from directing artillery fire or from conducting reconnaissance—destroying both vehicles in the process (Newdick, 2022). In another rather interesting incident a Russian-controlled Mavic was seen dropping an improvised miniature bomb on a hovering Ukrainian quadcopter below it in early December 2022 (Parsons, 2022). The use of both commercial off-the-shelf first-person view drones and tactical RPAs have been widespread during the war, causing a nuisance through revealing adversary positions and by dropping grenades on unsuspecting enemy soldiers below, amounting to an evolution, not revolution in warfare (Pettyjohn, 2024). Beyond such entrepreneurial attempts to deny enemy drones from operating over friendly troops, the first actual air combat between two armed drones is still waiting to happen.
Development of Drone Air Combat Capability
The commonly portrayed images of fleets of semi-autonomous or fully autonomous uncrewed combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) or, even, drone “swarms” contesting for the control of the air remains years away from becoming a reality as technology and operational applications await to mature. Instead, the first true air combat between drones will likely look more like the early days of air combat where the rather flimsy and fragile craft maneuvered for position at enemy’s “six” for a kill. The coming drone air combat will feature most prominently the existing medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) RPAs armed with within-visual-range (WVR) heat-seeking missiles, such as the famous Sidewinder or its Chinese, Russian, and Turkish counterparts.
Arming RPAs with air-to-air missiles is not new, however. As part of the “Reaper Air-to-Air Missile” (RAAM) program, General Atomics successfully test launched an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile from an USAF’s MQ-9 Reaper to take down a mock target over Nevada desert in November 2017 (Axe, 2012). The service’s air-to-air missile integration plans go back to at least 2003 when the now retired MQ-1 Predator’s received air-to-air version of the famous man-portable air defence missile, the FIM-92 Stinger, for self-defense against Iraqi fighters (Trevithick, 2018). This marked an important turning point in arming MALE RPAs with air-to-air armament. In one incident, an MQ-1 launched a Stinger against an Iraqi MiG-25 in self-defense but was itself destroyed in the incident (Axe, 2012). The Reaper’s ability to carry the most advanced variant of the Sidewinder, the AIM-9X Block II+, provides for a significant improvement in capability over the AIM-92 Stinger missile with a wide-field-of-view engagement, lock-on-after launch capability, and a significant increase in the missile’s maneuverability and range (Rogoway, 2020).
Turkey’s ubiquitous Bayraktar TB2 will also be integrated with air-to-air armament, mainly a version of Roketsan’s, a Turkish arms manufacturer, man-portable Sungur short-range air defense missile (Iddon, 2022). The TB2’s manufacturer Baykar and Roketsan signed a contract for the integration of the weapon to the drone at the Saha Expo in late October 2022, offering a lower cost solution (a Sungur missile is projected to cost $US20,000 each whereas an AIM-9X comes at a cost of more than $US380,000 per shot) to destroy enemy helicopters and drones than its manned alternatives (Ibid.). The Sungur uses imagining infrared (IIR) seeker with field-of-view (FOV) of +/-40 degrees, and range of eight kilometers (Roketsan, 2021).
Graph 1: Comparison of AIM-9X and Sungur Within Visual Range Air-to-Air Missiles’ Field-of-View.
Source: Author (2024).
Baykar’s newer and larger Akinci UAV will sport a nose-fitted multirole Active-Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar for longer detection range against air and surface targets (Baykar, n.d). Moreover, the RPA will also be armed with indigenously developed beyond visual range (RF) missiles to fully exploit the AESA radar’s extended detection range (Satam, 2022).
Similarly, China’s ever-growing panoply of armed RPAs were again on show at the biannual Zhuhai Air Show in November 2022. Significantly, a model of the new Wing Loong III UAV, the latest version of China’s major drone export success, was shown armed with the PL-10 IIR-guided air-to-air missile—Chinese equivalent to the American AIM-9X—for the first time (Nikkei, 2022). Such capabilities will likely become available for the Wing Loong and other Chinese drone customers as well.
This clearly shows the acknowledgment of the need to provide drones with self-defense and offensive air-to-air capability as armed RPAs of different actors encounter each other in air more frequently. Air operations over Libya and Syria between have been instructive with several countries’ armed drones operating within the same airspace, often with opposing interests. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise once we witness the first air-to-air duel between two remotely piloted aircraft—likely in a moderately contested environment. For instance, the many proxy conflicts in northern and sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East have witnessed multiple actors—both state and non-state—employing drones to fulfill limited airpower needs. It is these moderately contested environments that may well be the first to see drone-vs-drone air combat. The fact that countries in the region operate predominantly Chinese, Turkish and US-made drones, the competition to arm RPAs is on.
Drone Air Combat Coming of Age?
Once drones start shooting at each other, more RPAs will be offered with missiles for self-defense and development of countermeasures will rapidly follow. The countermeasures will most likely be adapted from systems already integrated on crewed aircraft using missile-approach warning systems and expendable decoys like flares for self-protection. The MQ-9 Reaper can already be fitted with an external pod with radar warning receiver and electronic jamming to defend itself against ground- and air-based threats (Rogoway, 2020).
Nevertheless, many technical, legal and operational challenges remain before drones evolve from mere ISR and light precision-strike platforms to a more sophisticated form capable of contesting for the control of the air. These challenges include limited payload-carrying capability of today’s MALE drones. The RPS still lack a dedicated air search and track sensors, such as radar or infrared search and track (IRST) systems, for expanded situational awareness and long-range all-weather detection capability. Moreover, besides soon being fitted with air-to-air missiles, today’s drones are not structurally or aerodynamically fit for intense maneuvering. Indeed, today’s drones are typically characterized by their high wing aspect ratio (wing span divided by its chord), appearing more like sailplanes than high-performance fighters. The high aspect ratio wing gives drones good altitude performance and long loiter time but is not well suited for aggressive maneuvering. The advanced air-to-air missiles will have to do much of the maneuvering.
Moreover, positive visual identification of targets remains both a legal and technical challenge. Modern dogfighting missiles like the AIM-9X, PL-10 and Sungur are all equipped with imagining infrared seeker-heads, which can be used for positive visual identification. The missile’s own seeker head will also act as the primary air engagement sensor before dedicated sensors are integrated. The electro-optical/infrared sensor turret fitted to both MQ-9 and Bayraktar is capable of following air targets but lack ability to slave the target to the missile’s own seeker head. Nevertheless, the organic EO/IR turret will assist in visual identification of targets.
Due to the structural and aerodynamic constraints of contemporary drones, the significance of the advanced air-to-air missile armament gains a relative prominence over the launching platform. Using modern IIR-seeker-head-equipped, extreme agility within visual range missiles like the American AIM-9X or Chinese PL-10 offers armed RPAs a credible self-defense capability against other drones and aircraft at relatively long distances. Moreover, the missile seeker-head’s wide field of view enables broad engagement envelopes with high probability of kill at the short ranges. However, such drones remain crude air combat platforms incapable of contesting control of the air in a high-intensity conflict like that found in Ukraine.
How are the air-to-air missile-armed RPAs operated in future? RPAs will likely begin carrying a heat-seeking missile as part of the overall payload for self-defense. It is also possible that an RPA conducting reconnaissance or strike missions will be paired with a dedicated escort RPA, armed with air-to-air missiles, to keep adversary drones (and other rotary- and fixed-wing aircraft) at distance. Similar to using a dedicated attack helicopter to escort transport helicopters in combat, it is easier for an RPA to provide protection for another drone at similar speeds than use a significantly faster crewed combat aircraft to do the same in lightly contested airspaces.
In the future, advanced UCAVs—or “loyal wingmen”—will join crewed combat aircraft in what is known as “manned-unmanned teaming” to create scale and support the crewed aircraft in various roles from reconnaissance, electronic warfare to carrying out air strikes and engaging in air combat. However, these highly autonomous vehicles will still remain under the supervision of a human pilot for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the trajectory is set for the introduction of collaborative combat aircraft (CCA), such as those developed by firms like Anduril and GA-ASI, alongside crewed aircraft with the USAF planning to field thousands of CCAs alongside its fifth and the future sixth generation crewed combat aircraft (Gunzinger, Stutzriem & Sweetman, 2024). These concepts have gained traction internationally with China, Russia, UK, Japan, and South Korea, among others, developing future concepts revolving around versions of the “manned-unmanned teaming”.
Conclusion
Armed drones have become increasingly popular and cost-effective form of air power. The global proliferation of armed drones has meant that these drones meet one another in air over different global hotspots more frequently. To protect one’s own troops on the ground small drones have already been used to attack each other in ‘kamikaze’ attacks. It is a question of when, not if, we will see the larger MALE RPAs hauling air-to-air missiles to the battlefield and start shooting down opposing drones. The capability has been under development and tested over several years. This evolution will likely result in a race to arm more drones with air-to-air missiles for self-defense and develop countermeasures against adversary missiles. The first air combat between armed drones will likely resemble less space-age air war and more like the early days of air combat with flimsy craft maneuvering to advantageous position for a shot—albeit one with advanced missiles.
Author: Dr Olli Pekka Suorsa is an Assistant Professor at Rabdan Academy in the U.A.E. His research focuses on air power, modern naval warfare, maritime security, defense industry and technology, and military modernization in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Before embarking on his academic career, Olli worked in defense and aerospace industry in Finland.
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Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in the INSIGHTS publication series are those of the individual contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Rabdan Security & Defense Institute, its affiliated organizations, or any government entity. The content published is intended for informational purposes and reflects the personal perspectives of the authors on various security and defence-related topics.